A decade following the UK embarked on a hurried referendum that divided the nation and unleashed chaos, a warning emerges from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the same might transpire with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering convulsions for which no one is equipped.
That is the message from two prominent commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a potentially tense and monumental referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can arise suddenly and can build support swiftly," the commentator remarked. "It is my view that the political architecture of our region remains extremely volatile."
New Title Aims to Stir Debate
The team have analysed the governmental, financial and societal rationales for any structural alteration in a book, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the matter with a tour of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts all parties, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.
"We must avoid a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose results have not been clarified because then you end up with an extremely divided society where people who have lost are resistant to losing and the victorious side don't know quite what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a most voters would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim that moment is imminent, and a organisation named pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists play down the possibility, resulting in ambiguity when or if there could be a national vote.
Lack of Serious Debate
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has masked the lack of informed dialogue, noted McBride.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the idea but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to realise it has largely not occurred. A lot has taken place in scholarly circles but very few elected officials or activists seek to involve themselves even with the essentials. To illustrate, what type of nation would you want? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the book, neither author supports unity or the current situation. They writes two pieces that strive for impartiality in laying out the argument for a united Ireland and the argument against, assembling economic and societal figures, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Debates encompass flags and symbols, duties, medical care, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to educate and stimulate discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," said the writer. "Dialogue indicates an acceptance of the notion that there might be reasonable perspectives on either side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where voters claim they favour unification but refuse greater financial contributions or implementing a different emblem to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland must establish what the plan from nationalist groups is beyond just stating: 'We seek a united Ireland and we love you'," stated O’Toole.
Probability of Referendum
The journalist believes a referendum in his lifetime is probable and that it may take place abruptly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a bad or a feckless secretary of state who declares: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have credible, legitimate points, he stated. "One side will win in this matter and somebody will in the end be defeated but each side has has important lessons to gain from the opposing viewpoints."
Appeal for Broader Dialogue
Westminster should join the debate, stated the analyst. "This is about your state. It's a British question just as much as it is an Irish issue."
